Argentina’s Geoeconomic Risk as a Food Exporter: An Assessment Using the Product-Level Geoeconomic Risk Exposure Index (IEGP)

Abstract

The paper analyzes the geoeconomic vulnerability of Argentina’s export basket in the context of increasing global geoeconomic fragmentation. To this end, it proposes and applies the “Product-Level Geoeconomic Risk Exposure Index” (IEGP), an original tool that combines economic variables—such as market relevance and concentration—with political-institutional variables concerning Argentina’s main trading partners and the key features of their bilateral relationships. The index is built on the premise that the use of trade policy for strategic purposes, and thus the likelihood of geopolitical disruption to trade flows, tends to arise when low bilateral institutionalization, high levels of ideological divergence, and a record of coercive behavior coincide. When these conditions occur in products that are both relevant and concentrated in a small number of markets, they generate significant vulnerability for international insertion. Applied to Argentina’s 2023 export basket, the IEGP helps identify 26 products with economic vulnerability, six of which present a high level of geoeconomic risk. The results show that Argentina’s specialization in food and agricultural products entails risks that go beyond the economic sphere, carrying direct geopolitical implications. The proposed approach allows for an integrated consideration of economic and foreign policy dimensions in designing the country’s international insertion strategy, providing an empirical basis for the anticipation and mitigation of risks in an increasingly unstable global environment.